In this short video, Jay Conner is joined by Colin Murphy.
Colin is a full-time investor who lives in Tampa Florida with his wife and two children.
Over a 16 year career, he has bought and sold more than $100 million worth of real estate in the US and UK markets, including 350+ fix and flips in Tampa between 2015-2020.
He has experience in a wide variety of real estate-related activities, including buy & hold, fix and flip, wholesaling, tax liens, tax deeds, foreclosure auctions, note investing, private lending, and more.
For more valuable information click on this link and watch the complete episode: https://youtu.be/pacA0l23jDQ – “The Foreclosure Tsunami Is Coming… with Jay Conner & Colin Murphy”
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Jay Conner:
What is your crystal ball say about the foreclosure market? Where do you see it today? Where do you see it going in the near future and say over the next few months or a year or a couple of years?
Colin Murphy
First of all, I wish I had a crystal ball. I mean, that would be pretty handy because where we are now is not where I thought we were going to be nine months ago or twelve months ago. So we’re, we’re auctions are at the minute and I’m talking about, Florida auctions, Florida as judicial state. So a foreclosure process moves quite slowly and the inventory levels in the foreclosure auctions are a small percentage of what they used to be maybe 5% of the available properties at auction compared to about two years ago. And then, the best time to be buying foreclosure options in Florida anyway, was maybe back in 2012 or 2013, when about 40% of all real estate transactions were some kind of distress, whether that was a short sale or an REO or a foreclosure there literally was.
And just to give an example in one little County in Tampa, that I specialize in Pasco County, you generally might have about 260 properties a month back in the good old days. And then when you fast forward to kind of 2018, 2019, you’re probably looking at 80 auctions a week, something like 70 or 80 auctions a week. So only about 25% of what it was at the peak. And nowadays Jay, it’s literally about 10 auctions a week in Pasco County. So just like a couple per day. So it’s really slow to an absolute trickle. Sometimes you might read misleading headlines in CNBC or some of these, real estate places where they might say, foreclosure options in Florida shot up 50%. I was really happy this they’ve gone from having like four per week to 10 per week.
And that sounds dramatic percentage wise, but when you really compare to where we were compared to the amount of foreclosures in a normal market where you don’t have all of these, foreclosure, moratoriums and everything else we’re nowhere near where we used to be you and it’s just slow to trickle. And in terms of where it’s going to go, I mean, for sure, we’re going to see more foreclosure opportunities, more opportunities to invest in foreclosure properties. Cause it has been a fantastic source of, for my business over the last six years in particular. And it will increase from today’s very, very low levels because the government is artificially holding that volume down with the amount of foreclosure moratoriums. People can literally postpone their mortgage payments for one, two years. Whereas before, nine months after stopping your mortgage, you’re going to be listed in a foreclosure auction in Florida.
And that’s the opposite as has happened now. And when you have unemployment, rising as sharply as it did in the last year, obviously the recovery has been pretty impressive, but the amount of people out of work now compared to a year and a half ago is still dramatically different. You’re talking about millions and millions of households. That’s the biggest predictor of mortgage defaults. So you are going to see an increase in foreclosures for sure. I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be tsunami of them. I don’t necessarily think you’re going to see massive price drops like we saw 10 years ago. Cause there are a bunch of things that are different now.
Jay Conner:
How quickly or slowly you think it’s going to move from now, or do you even have a guess?
Colin Murphy:
I see a CNR. The inventory to minute is as low as it’s ever been.It’s literally lower now than it was even four or five months ago. So I can see that continuing for much of this year. And then I’m hoping that, and I’m talking to some people, some foreclosure attorneys, people that are more familiar with the backlogs that are in the courts here. I’m hoping it’s going to start increasing in Q4 2021 and Q2 2022. So I think really next year is when you’re going to see that increase in inventory. And to be honest with you, I think the market is able to absorb a pretty big increase in inventory because it is so low at the minute. We’re at a couple of months worth of inventory and under certainly demand for much more. And when you have that amount of kind of pent up demand you, you have to figure that prices should hold pretty steady. So my ideal scenario is having loads more foreclosures that are available for me to buy and I’m able to sell them at top dollar afterwards.
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